Arithmetic computation with probability words and numbers
نویسندگان
چکیده
Probability information is regularly communicated to experts who must fuse multiple estimates support decision making. Such often verbally (e.g., “likely”) rather than with precise numeric (point) values “.75”), yet people are not taught perform arithmetic on verbal probabilities. We hypothesized that the accuracy and logical coherence of averaging multiplying probabilities will be poorer when individuals receive probability in numerical point format. In four experiments (N = 213, 201, 26, 343, respectively), we manipulated communication format between subjects. Participants averaged multiplied sets Across experiments, was significantly better These findings generalized expert (intelligence analysts) non-expert samples controlling for calculator use. Experiment 4 revealed an important qualification: Whereas were among participants presented probabilities, imprecise numeric-probability ranges “.70 .80”) afforded no computational advantage over also partially mediated by strategy more likely use mental computation guesswork, found associated accuracy. Our suggest where important, should end users
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Journal of Behavioral Decision Making
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['0894-3257', '1099-0771']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/bdm.2232